SAP SE: Q2 2026 wrap: positive bookings surprise, but AI has a cost

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SAP SE: Q2 2026 wrap: positive bookings surprise, but AI has a cost

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SAP SE

Q2 2026 wrap: positive bookings surprise,

but AI has a cost

Reiterate Rating: BUY | PO: 208.00 EUR | Price: 128.32 EUR

Solid Q2, CCB/rev beat, but EBIT miss 24 July 2026

We reiterate our Buy on SAP post Q2 results. PO down to €208 from €210 (ADR $237 Equity

from $245). SAP is our top large-cap Software pick for 2026, is one of our "25 stocks for

2026 and is on our Europe 1 list of top ideas. The acceleration in CCB to +26%, implying

Key Changesstable CCB ex M&A vs Q1 at +25%, was the main positive surprise vs consensus at

24.3%, and is at odds vs the end 2026 guidance of slight deceleration. On the negative (EUR) Previous Current

side, EBIT was a 5% miss, driven by higher R&D costs (token consumption), but Price Obj. 210.00 208.00

management characterized it as an anomaly with model optimization and stable 2026E Rev (m) 40,020.9 39,967.7

headcount expected. All 2026 guidance was reiterated (immaterial revenue contribution 2027E Rev (m) 44,808.0 44,772.3

form Dremio / PriorLabs), whilst EBIT, trimmed by 1pp or €100mln to 13-17% (from 14- 2028E Rev (m) 49,915.5 50,010.0

18%) to reflect the dilutive impact of Dremio and Prior Labs (>€100m) – which we 2026E EPS 6.98 6.97

already reflected in our latest update (see SAP: Q2 Preview.), and is consistent with 2027E EPS 8.20 8.13

consensus at 15.3% EBIT growth. 2028E EPS 9.72 9.68

2026E DPS 2.69 2.68

Confident on margins, limited macro impact, no cloud cut

1/ Solid CCB development, ahead of cloud growth. Keep prudence in H2 in outlook Frederic Boulan, CFA >>

Research Analyst

(slight decel) but much better dynamics vs 2025. Post Sapphire pipeline better than MLI (UK)

2025. 2/ Macro: Don’t see any major impact.