SAP-DE: 2Q Preview — Macro Noise Likely to Overshadow Results

Research evidence excerpt

SAP-DE: 2Q Preview — Macro Noise Likely to Overshadow Results

SAP SE Equity Research

Takeaways from Our Recent Field Work

We held several discussions with SAP practice leaders at large global system integrators and with

industry experts in cloud migration trends over the past 30 days. We note these partners are skewed

towards large enterprise clients (G2K and above) and therefore have less visibility into mid-market

trends.

• S/4HANA migration demand persists as 2027 support deadlines move from future issue to

near-term operating reality: Across our discussions, experts and GSIs noted that customers are

moving closer to active execution and out of stage 0 planning of ERP modernization in part due

to looming ECC support deadline as well as IT prioritization of ERP AI modernization. Specifically,

experts note that ~33-40% of total customers sized at around ~30-35K have migrated or are

live on S/4 today while RISE adoption appears closer to ~20%. Additionally, when asked what

percentage of existing ECC customer may still not adopt S/4 by 2030 estimates ranged from

HSDs to nearly 40%. Specifically, the HSD camp noted 3P support would prove highly cost

inefficient and elevate business risk on complex ECC estates while the 40%+ camp noted ECC

customers are relatively content with current operations and would prefer paying for extended

maintenance while AI improves migration timelines and cost expectations. On balance, SAP’s

HANA cloud roadmap strengthens the case for modernization by embedding deeper into BDC,

enabling SAP / non-SAP data products, semantic onboarding, AI app development, and agentic use

cases on top of S/4 estates which may accelerate adoption timelines.

• EU ruling on SAP's contract mechanisms: On July 9th, the EU introduced a binding, 10-year