UBS: Fast Take: Prudential "Valuation read-across from HSBC Singapore" Ahmed

Research evidence excerpt

UBS: Fast Take: Prudential "Valuation read-across from HSBC Singapore" Ahmed

Forecast returns

Forecast price appreciation 35.5%

Forecast dividend yield 2.5%

Forecast stock return 38.0%

Market return assumption 9.2%

Forecast excess return 28.8%

Company Description

Prudential plc operates in Asian and African growth markets with unique and leading

positions in fast-growing and increasingly affluent Asian markets. Prudential focuses on

savings and health and protection products, supported by a leading agency and

bancassurance distribution network.

Valuation Method and Risk Statement

Prudential’s Asian operations expose investors to emerging market risk. A substantial portion

of profits are earned in US dollars or currencies that tend to track the dollar. Our valuation

analysis relies largely on embedded value disclosure, which is driven by a large number of

assumptions and proprietary methodology. Our valuation is SOTP driven using multiples of

Embedded Value for the Asia business, PE multiple for Eastspring and holding company costs.

Allianz S.E:

Allianz's large investment portfolio brings significant exposure to financial markets.

Principally, this exposure is in the form of corporate and government bonds, in addition to

other asset classes such as equities and real estate. Operationally, divisions are also exposed to

the threat of potential natural catastrophes and a sustained low bond yield environment. The

latter could be significant if yields stay low for a long time. Other key risks include regulatory

and uncertainty over required levels of capital for large global insurance companies. Our price

target is SOTP derived, rolled forward 12 months.

HSBC:

HSBC operates globally. This exposes it to financial risk from macroeconomic changes, as well