Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.: Post 2Q26: Guidance raised, good qtr. Decel for 2H could weigh on stock

Research evidence excerpt

Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.: Post 2Q26: Guidance raised, good qtr. Decel for 2H could weigh on stock

iQprofile SM Ardagh Metal Packaging S.A.

iQmethod SM – Bus Performance* Company Sector

(US$ Millions) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Packaging

Return on Capital Employed 2.4% 5.4% 5.1% 6.4% 7.4%

Return on Equity NM NM NM NM NM

Operating Margin 4.1% 4.4% 5.0% 5.6% 6.2% Company Description Free Cash Flow 283 276 339 340 426

With sales of approximately $5.5bn in 2025, Ardagh Metal

Packaging is a leading supplier of beverage cans globally. In

iQmethod SM – Quality of Earnings* 2020, AMBP had 39bn units of annual production capacity

(US$ Millions) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E and has #2 or #3 positions in Europe, the United States,

Cash Realization Ratio 4.4x 3.6x 3.6x 3.3x 3.1x and Brazil. AMBP was formed as a result of a merger with

Asset Replacement Ratio 0.5x 0.5x 0.7x 0.8x 0.7x Gores Holdings V, a special purpose acquisition company

Tax Rate 130.0% NM 34.2% 30.0% 30.0% (SPAC), on August 4, 2021. AMBP's business was formerly

Net Debt-to-Equity Ratio NM NM NM NM NM

owned by Ardagh Group S.A., which currently retains 82% Interest Cover 1.1x 1.0x 1.3x 1.4x 1.6x

of AMBP's equity.

Income Statement Data (Dec)

(US$ Millions) 2024A 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Investment Rationale

Sales 4,908 5,497 6,317 6,394 6,547 We rate Ardagh Metal Packaging at Underperform given its

% Change 2.0% 12.0% 14.9% 1.2% 2.4% capital structure and substantial leverage, even as the stock

Gross Profit 939 1,006 1,110 1,135 1,188 has done quite well in recent periods, limiting its upside in

% Change 25.4% 7.1% 10.4% 2.2% 4.7% our assessment. Brazil volumes could remain muted on

EBITDA 672 739 790 815 861

relative customer trends. We expect AMBP to lose some % Change 12.0% 10.0% 7.0% 3.1% 5.6%