2Q26 Packaging & Paper/Forest Products Earnings Preview – Results Likely In-Line; 2H Could Be Better

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 Packaging & Paper/Forest Products Earnings Preview – Results Likely In-Line; 2H Could Be Better

uidance included only May 5 qtd plywood pricing

at 8% above the 1Q average, while 2Q Random Lengths pricing has averaged +14% q/q

thus far. In fairness, BCC’s plywood mix may be less rich than the market average given

that higher quality logs are used to make veneers for EWP with the remainder used for

plywood. Looking ahead, there is the potential for near-term plywood price weakness

should Brazilian producers increase shipments to the US ahead of a potential 25%

Section 301 tariff (total stackable tariff rate of 35-40%). Should that tariff take effect and

pre-buy occur, we believe pricing could rebound after inventories are worked through

and lower cost imports are minimized. At the same time, it is our sense that there could

be upside to EWP pricing and volumes on potential share gains vs. competitors and/

or alternative products. In that regard, our Wood Products industry contacts noted that

EWP producers have announced ~4-5% price increases across all grades and regions,

which if implemented affords support to 2H (link).

Clearwater Paper

We keep our 2Q EPS at -$1.54, but increase our 3Q EPS to -$0.73 from -$1.04 as we

believe our prior 3Q forecast may have been too punitive. Our 2026 EPS moves to -

$4.79 from -$5.10 on our revised 3Q. Despite the upward revision, we believe there are

increasing risks to 2H as it appears unlikely that SBS folding carton prices are going

to increase given excess supply, short lead times, and lack of supplier intensity around

pushing price.

Graphic Packaging

We keep our 2Q EPS at $0.15 and 2026 EPS at $0.90. However, we believe there are

increasing risks to 2H as CRB fundamentals are deteriorating due to both conversions