SF / RJF CY2Q26 Wrap: A Tale of Two NII Trajectories

Research evidence excerpt

SF / RJF CY2Q26 Wrap: A Tale of Two NII Trajectories

Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges

Retail Brokers - Market Weight

SF / RJF CY2Q26 Wrap: A Tale of Two NII Trajectories July 22, 2026

The Wolfe Byte

SF F2Q results drove LSD % positive estimate revisions and the improving outlook in Capital Markets warranted

greater share price outperformance. RJF F3Q results were more muted, and mixed outlook commentary (M&A; Op.

Leverage; NII) imply more tepid EPS growth through FY27.

SF F2Q Recap (+): SF shares outperformed (+2% vs. S&P Fins. / SPX Flat) after reporting a beat on IB, NII, and a lower

comp ratio. Outlook commentary on IB was more bullish than expected, with CEO Kruszewski highlighting broad based

near-term strength across the platform. Wolfe View: While SF did indicate that a ramp in Depository M&A is likely a

FY27 story (though TCBK / FHB could be a fee windfall by YE26), we underappreciated the broad-based strength that

SF is seeing across it's IB platform (inclusive of a strong start to 3Q based on Dealogic M&A / ECM data). A better NII

outlook (higher 4Q exit rate) combined with a lower FY26 comp accrual (low-end of the 56.5% - 57.5% range) resulted

in LSD % positive EPS revisions with our updated 2027 EPS ~4% above current cons. SF shares have lagged peers

YTD (-5% vs. RJF +5% / AMP +7%), and the constructive near-term outlook supported greater outperformance, with

shares too discounted at ~10x WR 2027 EPS vs. ~20% EPS CAGR over 2Y. PT to $95 from $91 on positive revisions.

Maintain Outperform.

RJF F3Q Recap (=/-): RJF reported adjusted EPS of $3.14 vs. WR / Cons. of $2.96 / $2.89, driven by lower non-

comps (+$0.09; including a sizable reserve release) and a lower tax rate (+$0.17), partially offset by a higher comp (-

$0.07).