U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges: Brokers 2Q26 Preview: Full Steam Ahead

Research evidence excerpt

U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges: Brokers 2Q26 Preview: Full Steam Ahead

Barclays | U.S. Brokers, Asset Managers & Exchanges

LPL: We revise our model based on intra-quarter metrics though our EPS estimate of $5.31 is

unchanged, now 2% below the Street. We revise our Advisory, Trailing Commissions, and Other

Asset-Based revenues based on market movements (a bit lower vs our prior expectations) and

our NII estimate comes down based on lower cash balances. While LPL should see some asset-

based tailwinds going into Q2, shares continue to trade at the low end of their historical

multiple range, as AI-related disruptions continue to weigh on the stock.

RJF: We are relatively neutral on RJF going into the quarter. On a headline basis, we raised EPS

estimates, driven by bullish markets (SPY +15%) supporting stronger admin and brokerage fees

within PCG. We are also constructive on NNAs, given management’s more aggressive stance and

tone around recruiting efforts, alongside what we view as an already competitive advisor

platform. Client cash, on the other hand, continues to face headwinds, with sorting coming in

worse than expected following April tax seasonality. That said, the weak monthly results

through May can be partially explained by the bullish market backdrop, as clients put dry

powder to work. We are also relatively cautious on near-term capital markets potential given

the deal environment, and have pushed back a broader acceleration to 2027/28 until we see a

more consistent cadence of activity.

FIGURE 1. Q2 EPS/EBITDA vs. Street

2Q25E

BARCe EPS Street vs. Street

IBKR $0.62 $0.61 2%

HOOD* $675 $749 11%

SCHW $1.55 $1.52 2%

LPLA $5.31 $5.42 -2%

RJF $3.05 $2.88 5%

*adj. EBITDA ($M)

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research estimates

9 July 2026 2