T-Mobile US: Post 2Q Thoughts & Model Update

Research evidence excerpt

T-Mobile US: Post 2Q Thoughts & Model Update

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy T-Mobile US 23 July 2026

North America Reuters Bloomberg Rating Buy

United States TMUS.OQ TMUS US Price target (USD) 250.00 Price at 22 Jul 26 190.94

52-week range 259.01 – 167.73

TMT

Telecom Services Valuation & Risks

Post 2Q Thoughts & Model Update

Bryan Kraft

Key Takeaways Research Analyst

+1-212-250-0117 • T-Mobile’s 2Q results exceeded our estimates for FCF and EBITDA by 2%,

while coming in slightly below (0.2%) our service revenue forecast due to Benjamin Soff

lower prepaid revenue. Postpaid account net adds of 277K and ARPA of Research Analyst

$152.91 were right in line with our estimates. Management reiterated all of +1-212-250-3716

the 2026 guidance, while narrowing the range for FCF, which raised the

Spencer Amer midpoint by $200M. The market typically doesn’t reward T-Mobile for a Research Associate

“meet” as the expectation is always that management sets the bar at a level +1-212-250-4386

at which they’re confident the company can beat, and then they raise

guidance over the course of the year, and ultimately beat the final guidance Shiv-A Singh

raise. Hence the stock price decline today, taking it down almost to its 52- Research Associate

+1-212-250-0118

week and 2-year lows. Notwithstanding this dynamic, this was essentially an

in line quarter and a reiteration of a very healthy outlook consisting of ~1M

new accounts, and solid MSD organic revenue and EBITDA growth.

Key changes

• We are lowering our PT to $250, from $285, which is a function of our lower Price target (USD) 285 250 -12%

EBITDA and FCF estimates, and somewhat lower growth outlook. However,

this still represents ~40% upside to the current stock price, offering what we Source: Deutsche Bank