TMUS: A Spectrum of Risk & Opportunity—Initiate at Equal Weight

Research evidence excerpt

TMUS: A Spectrum of Risk & Opportunity—Initiate at Equal Weight

Equity Research

Transfer of Coverage — July 8, 2026

Wireless Carriers

T-Mobile US, Inc.

A Spectrum of Risk & Opportunity—Initiate at Equal Weight Equal Weight

Price Target: $170.00

Our Call Ticker TMUS

Upside/(Downside) to Target (8.0)%

While historically the Telco darling, TMUS could be at risk from competitive shifts.

Spectrum is TMUS's great differentiator, but that swagger could also mean it's less likely Price (07/07/2026) $184.73

to pursue an accretive satellite MVNO. We initiate at Equal Weight. 52 Week Range $165.66 - 261.56

Market Cap (MM) $203,582

Initiate with an Equal Weight rating. Our TMUS initiation draws heavily on our Enterprise Value (MM) $285,403

accompanying industry perspectives (link). TMUS has been the historical share gainer w/ Average Daily Value (MM) $1,086

its best network/value/experience mantra + execution. But, there are 2 industry shifts that Dividend Yield 2.2%

could lead to pressure on postpaid account net adds: 1.) VZ will likely be less of a wireless

share donor; and 2.) Starlink could reduce industry-wide growth. TMUS should remain the $ (Dec) Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 FY

strongest earnings grower, but w/ less upside vs history. EPS

2026E 2.27 A 2.60 E 2.84 E 2.40 E 10.11 E

Best spectrum vs smallest fiber. We est. TMUS will continue to spend healthily on 2027E 3.22 E 3.37 E 3.76 E 3.15 E 13.51 E

spectrum while keeping leverage in the 2-2.5x range. This results in FCF to buybacks

Source: Company Data, Wells Fargo Securities estimates, and Factset.

of $116bn for '26-'32E even w/ >$45bn set aside for spectrum. TMUS's spectrum also NA = Not Available, NC = No Change, NE = No Estimate

makes it the most attractive long-term M&A candidate, i.e. option value. But, we also