Woolworths Group Ltd: Risk Reward Update

Research evidence excerpt

Woolworths Group Ltd: Risk Reward Update

Update

July 23, 2026 08:06 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley Australia Limited+MWoolworths Group Ltd | Asia Pacific Melinda K Baxter

Equity Analyst

Risk Reward Update Melinda.Baxter@morganstanley.com +61 2 9770-1176

What’s Changed

Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW.AX) From To

Price Target A$33.10 A$37.60

Bull Case A$37.00 A$39.00

Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW.AX, WOW AU)

Base Case A$33.10 A$37.60

Updated Components Australia Consumer | Australia

EPS Stock Rating Equal-weight

Industry View Cautious

Risk Reward for Woolworths Group Ltd (WOW.AX) has been PriceShr price,targetclose (Jul 23, 2026) A$37.60A$38.92

updated 52-Week Range A$40.75-25.51

Fiscal Year Ending 06/25 06/26e 06/27e 06/28e

Reason for change EPS (A$)** 1.13 1.28 1.43 1.61

Prior EPS (A$)** - 1.28 1.36 1.55

We adjust estimates ahead of FY26 results. Driving average estimate upgrades of

Unless otherwise noted, all metrics are based on Morgan Stanley ModelWare

4.3% across FY27-28e are i) upgrades to our AU Food GP margin estimates, noting framework

** = Based on consensus methodology

less protracted fuel impact than previously anticipated and better than expected e = Morgan Stanley Research estimates

pricing power to benefit operating leverage. We also make slight adjustments to

near term W Living estimates noting competitive dynamics in discount department

stores/pet. We make no changes to our sales estimates, and continue to forecast AU

Food FY27 LFL growth of 4.5%.

We increase the P/E multiple we apply to WOW's FY27 earnings from 23x (~mid

cycle) to 26x (~1SD above midcycle) reflecting more positive sales and earnings

momentum relative to discretionary.

Our new PT is A$37.6/shr from A$33.1/shr.

Our new P/E valuation is A$37.0/shr from A$30.0/shr and our new DCF valuation is