Woolworths Group Ltd FY26 Result Outlook – Downgrade to Neutral as double-digit earnings growth outlook now priced in

Research evidence excerpt

Woolworths Group Ltd FY26 Result Outlook – Downgrade to Neutral as double-digit earnings growth outlook now priced in

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 July 2026

Woolworths Group Ltd ▼Neutral

Previous: Overweight

FY26 Result Outlook – Downgrade to Neutral as WOW.AX, WOW AU

Price (15 Jul 26):A$39.35

double-digit earnings growth outlook now priced in ▲Price Target (Jul-27):A$39.50

Prior (May-27):A$37.00

Woolworths will report its FY26 results on 26 August. We expect investors to focus Australia

on: 1) the gross margin opportunity from the Customer Offer Reset (COR)

Australian Consumer Sector

program; 2) sales growth differentials in 4Q26 and the first 8 weeks of 1Q27e; 3)

the pace of inflation; 4) the cost outlook into FY27e given elevated wage rates; and Bryan Raymond AC

5) Australian Food earnings delivery within the MSD-HSD range (JPMe 6.3%). (61-2) 9003-6750

bryan.raymond@jpmorgan.com

We downgrade our rating from Overweight to Neutral following a substantial re-

Christina Kim

rating and small EPS revisions (+0.1% in FY26e, +1.3% in FY27e and -1.1% in (61-2) 9003-7082

FY28e). Our price target increases by +6.8% to $39.50 to reflect the medium-term christina.kim@jpmorgan.com

earnings opportunity from COR. We prefer Woolworths over Coles (also J.P. Morgan Securities Australia Limited

downgraded to Neutral) given superior sales momentum in 1Q27e (5.4% vs 4.5%

sales growth) and supermarket EBIT growth in FY27e (+11.9% vs +6.6%) and

Half Yearly Forecasts (FYE Jun)

FY28e (+10.1% vs +5.1%). This underpins a ~17% FY27e PER premium to Coles,

Adjusted PAT (A$ mn)

however in 12 months’ time, on our price target and above-consensus earnings 2025A 2026E 2027E

forecasts, Woolworths’ PER would be in-line with Coles’ at 23.2x, which we H1 741 866A 1,012