European Metals & Mining Tracker: Full Buckets

Research evidence excerpt

European Metals & Mining Tracker: Full Buckets

Idea

July 23, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MEuropean Metals & Mining Tracker | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

Full Buckets Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comIoannis Masvoulas, CFA +44 20 7425-8959

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Growing steel import friction meets pricing power Adahna Ekoku

Exhibit 1: Q3 quota utilisation shows that HRC access is tightening fastest for Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Ferdinand Huber

the largest traditional import origins, with Turkey, Indonesia and India already at or

Research Associate

>50% Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+

Turkey (20%)

Brian Morgan

Indonesia (14%) Equity Analyst

YtD) India (11%) Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803

2026 South Korea (8%) Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+ Ukraine (13%)

Vietnam (6%) Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA Share Commodities Strategist

Serbia (4%)

Taiwan (4%) Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-6937 Import United Kingdom (1%) Ben Kelson

Research Associate HRC Egypt (1%)

Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392

of Australia (2%)

(% Brazil (0%)

Mining 101

Japan (1%)

Saudi Arabia (2%) Mining & Steel Equities Country

China (0%) % of HRC Quota Filled QtD Mining Sector Valuation Long Term

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Steel Sector Valuation Long Term

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, European Commission, EuroStat Commodity Price Signals

Commodity Price Forecast

Import friction rising. The new steel safeguard regime has overhauled the

European Union's looser residual-access framework with a stricter country- and

product-specific quota system. Recapping the new framework, 18.3mt of annual