Pharmaceuticals: Key Focus of Upcoming Apr-Jun Results (Mid-cap Pharma /Generics)

Research evidence excerpt

Pharmaceuticals: Key Focus of Upcoming Apr-Jun Results (Mid-cap Pharma /Generics)

IdeaAlphaSignalsMEarnings Preview

Focus KPI Focus KPI Surprise Likely impact to consensus EPS*

Sumitomo Pharma 4506.T

Core OP, Orgovyx sales Likely upside surprise Largely unchanged

• Our 1Q Core OP forecast is ¥8.5bn (-58% YoY).

• Relative to our forecast, Orgovyx sales could exceed expectations, while underspending on R&D may provide

upside to profits.

• Also need to confirm timing and views regarding the resumption of dividends.

Nippon Shinyaku 4516.T

OP Likely upside surprise Largely unchanged

• We expect Q&A to focus more on updates for cell therapy deramiocel than on current earnings trends.

• Our 1Q OP forecast is ¥9.7bn (-4% YoY). Higher royalty income and FX gains from yen weakness, plus

underspending on R&D and SG&A, could drive YoY profit growth.

Kaken Pharmaceutical 4521.T

OP In-line Largely unchanged

• Our 1Q OP forecast is ¥8.5bn (+¥8.4bn YoY). We expect a sharp earnings recovery from the low level recorded

in 1Q last year.

• The main factor is the timing shift of the $70mn development milestone for atopic dermatitis drug KP-723

following the start of Ph1 (from F3/26 to 1Q F3/27).

• We expect the company's full-year OP target of ¥7.9bn to be exceeded in 1Q alone.

Santen Pharmaceutical 4536.T

Core OP, Upneeq (ptosis) In-line Largely unchanged

• More than consolidated earnings trends, we focus on sales momentum for myopia treatment Ryjusea and

ptosis treatment Upneeq.

• Our 1Q Core OP forecast is ¥12.3bn (+27% YoY).

• Our 1Q sales forecasts for domestic new products are ¥150mn for Upneeq and ¥500mn for Ryjusea.

Tsumura 4540.T

• Our 1Q OP forecast is ¥10.1bn ( +31% YoY). The main driver of profit growth is the consolidation of

Hongqiao's P&L within the China business.