Finnair: Issues for debate post 2Q FY26 results

Research evidence excerpt

Finnair: Issues for debate post 2Q FY26 results

Equity Research

European Transportation

22 July 2026

Finnair

Issues for debate post 2Q FY26

results

Key issues include the sustainability of RASK strength after FIA1S.HE/FIA1S FH UNDERWEIGHT

Middle East disruption, unit fuel and non-fuel costs, the European Transportation NEUTRAL

potential duration of ancillary growth and the execution of Price Target EUR 3.60

Price (22-Jul-26) EUR 4.90

the fleet and network growth plan. Potential Upside/Downside -26.5%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

What's the debate? This report provides a set of issues for investors to discuss with Finnair

management's team post 2Q FY26 results on 22 July 2026. European Transportation

Andrew Lobbenberg

Top five questions +44 (0)20 3555 0639

andrew.lobbenberg@barclays.com

How much of the Asia unit revenue strength is sustainable? Barclays, UK

How should investors think about mid-term CASK ex-fuel after the 2Q step-up? Rahul Singh

+91 (0)22 6175 2529

What is the downside risk from fuel price moves? rahul.xb.singh@barclays.com

Barclays, UK

Can ancillary revenue per passenger keep growing? Marco Limite

+39 (0)2 6372 2582

Does the narrow-body fleet plan add execution or cost risk? marco.limite@barclays.com

BBI, Milan

View and valuation: We rate the stock Equal Weight with a price target of €3.60. Finnair is

benefiting from windfall gains on Asian flying from Gulf hub disruption. We do not see this being Emilie Fung

sustainable. In coming quarters, we expect revenue strength to fade, but unit cost pressures +44 (0)20 3555 2335

emilie.fung@barclays.commay prove more stubborn.

For our post-results note, please see Finnair: Quite the party, we anticipate quite a hangover, 22 Helene Iselin

July 2025. +44 (0)20 7773 7391

helene.iselin@barclays.com