Finnair: Asian boom looks too good to be true

Research evidence excerpt

Finnair: Asian boom looks too good to be true

Equity Research

European Transportation

5 June 2026

Finnair

Asian boom looks too good to be

true

Finnair benefits from 40% of total capacity on Asian routes FIA1S.HE/FIA1S FH UNDERWEIGHT

where unit revenues currently boom. We do not think this from Equal Weight

windfall gain can endure and expect 2H unit revenues to European Transportation UnchangedNEUTRAL

normalise and then weaken below normal levels. We raise Price Target EUR 3.60

FY26 EBIT 44%, raise PT to €3.60 from €3.10 but downgrade to raised 16% from EUR 3.10

UW ( EW). Price (03-Jun-26) EUR 4.29 Potential Upside/Downside -16.1%

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

Flying Finns: In the past three months, Finnair shares have risen 50%, the strongest

performance among our European covered airlines and far ahead of the Helsinki 25 index, which Market Cap (EUR mn) 878

was up 11% in the period. This optimism reflects recent reductions in fuel prices and the strong Shares Outstanding (mn) 204.87

unit revenues on Asian routes, which represent 40% of Finnair capacity and underpin 24%/18% Free Float (%) 44.29

of reported group RASK gains in March/April. 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 0.3

Dividend Yield (%) 1.86

We believe Asian unit revenue gains will not endure: We expect Finnair's unit revenue gains in Return on Equity TTM (%) 8.15

May and June to gradually attrite before turning negative in 2H26. As we elaborated in our Current BVPS (EUR) 4.52

Lufthansa downgrade and subsequent Lufthansa catalyst alert, we expect the rebuilt capacity of Source: Bloomberg

the Gulf carriers to be marketed aggressively in the near future. We expect the windfall unit

revenues enjoyed by European and Asian airlines overflying the Gulf will fall and Asian unit Price Performance Exchange-OMX