Telia (1K) | Hold | Cash flow strength, but priced in

Research evidence excerpt

Telia (1K) | Hold | Cash flow strength, but priced in

#EstimatesRevision

Release date: 22 July 2026

Company research

ESG profile HoldTelia

Sweden | Telecom services Beta Profile: MCap: SEK176.3bn

Target Price: SEK50.00 Change in TP: 0.0 % Bloomberg: TELIA SS Reuters: TELIA.ST

Current Price: SEK44.83 Change in Sales: -0.1% 26E/-0.1% 27E Free float 59%

Up/downside: 11.5% Change in Adj EBIT: -0.5% 26E/0.6% 27E Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 645.2

YTD abs performance 13.8% Market data: 21 July 2026 Change in Adj. EPS: -0.4% 26E/0.7% 27E

52-week high/low (SEK) 51.68/34.48

Cash flow strength, but priced in Price performance

Why this report?

Another solid cash flow quarter strengthens confidence in Telia’s path

towards its SEK10bn FCF target for 2027. Maintaining the 2026 outlook

despite absorbing an unexpected SEK400m VAT-related payment in Norway is

a clear sign of underlying cash flow strength. However, the shares and market

expectations already reflect much of this progress. With limited upside from

current levels, we reiterate our Hold rating and SEK50 target price.

Key findings

Q2 summary: Service revenue growth accelerated to 2.8% (Q1: 2.1%), the

strongest since Q4 2023, with Sweden remaining solid, Norway rebounding as the

wholesale headwind faded, Lithuania continuing to perform strongly and Finland

stabilising. EBITDA grew 3.4%, driven by Sweden and the Baltics, while Norway FY to 31/12 (SEK) 12/26E 12/27E 12/28E

remained slightly negative due to a tough TV content-cost comparison. FCF of Sales 83,201 84,506 85,891

SEK2.2bn took H1 to SEK4.1bn, ahead of Telia’s initial plan, although partly EBITDA adj. 33,295 34,652 35,659

supported by phasing. EBIT adj. 15,932 17,412 18,640

Net profit adj. 9,734 11,025 12,002