Telia (AO) | Hold | Q2 preview: Norway turning, FCF guidance looking conservative

Research evidence excerpt

Telia (AO) | Hold | Q2 preview: Norway turning, FCF guidance looking conservative

#EarningsPreview #Positive

Release date: 10 July 2026

Kristoffer Carleskär

Equity Research Analyst

+44 207 621 5149

kcarleskar@keplercheuvreux.com

HoldTelia

Sweden | Telecom services Beta Profile: MCap: SEK178.0bn

Target Price: SEK50.00 Bloomberg: TELIA SS Reuters: TELIA.ST

Current Price: SEK45.26 Free float 59%

Up/downside: 10.5% Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 634.1

YTD abs performance 14.9% Market data: 09 July 2026

52-week high/low (SEK) 51.68/33.07

Q2 preview: Norway turning, FCF guidance looking conservative

Key points:

Telia is set to report Q2 earnings on 17 July, where we expect to see service revenue growth of 2.5% in local currency, excluding

Bredband2 consolidation, marking a slight acceleration from the 2.1% recorded in Q1. The key explanation is Norway, where we

forecast service revenue to return to positive growth (+2.5%) for the first time since Q2 2024, helped by significant fixed-line

headwinds being lapped and the headwind from losing the Ice agreement being annualised. We forecast Q1 trends to continue

into Q2 in Sweden (a touch below 3% excluding Bredband2) and a flat development in Finland, with continued declines in mobile

due to intense competition, but somewhat better trends in fixed, helped by an easier comparable. For 2026 as a whole, we

forecast service revenue growth, excluding M&A, at just below 2%, in line with guidance.

At the EBITDA level, we see another quarter of growth around 4%. Sweden is expected to extend its mid-single-digit growth trend

(slightly above 6% excluding Bredband2), with Finland forecast to see improved sequential growth (2% vs flat in Q1) as workforce

reductions start to yield savings, offsetting the subdued top-line trend.