Macquarie ANZ Essentials - Jul 17 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Macquarie ANZ Essentials - Jul 17 2026

Macquarie Equity Research – Essentials

17 July 2026

ANZ Essentials

Woodside Energy (Neutral to Outperform) 3

Trading up: the Exxon option Mark Wiseman, CFA

• Strait of Hormuz crisis has de-rated Qatar LNG assets (arguably permanently); may trigger LNG

M&A, making WDS a viable target.

• US majors on 40-50% higher multiples than EU and AU energy, enabling all-stock offers to unlock

value unavailable in WDS' current structure.

• We incorporate a 20% probability of an M&A approach in the next 12 months in our TP (+9% to

$32.80/sh on DCF/M&A blend). U/g to OP

Australia Quant Action 4

Reframing Crowding: When the Herd Turns Ryan Croft, CFA

• The Macquarie Reversal Risk Screen identifies Herded stocks most vulnerable to reversal using

participation, exhaustion & sector crowding.

• The strongest reversal risk occurs for Herded Overbought stocks in crowded sectors or when

Momentum shifts.

• Recent Momentum weakness creates a favourable backdrop for this rotation to occur. U/W:

Herded Overbought; O/W: Laggard Oversold.

Critical Minerals Chronicle 5

Lithium - are we there yet? Austin Yun, CFA

• Lithium price has corrected, but equities have sold off more sharply, reflecting weaker sentiment

and expectations for near-term earnings downgrades.

• Tight 2HCY26 Li fundamentals could support futures market, but equity markets are

increasingly focused on CY27 market balances.

• IGO remains our preferred exposure, offering attractive FCF yields across lithium price scenarios

without major project commitment.

BHP Group (Neutral) 6

Hunt for Red November Rob Stein

• BHP 4QFY26a was in line for Fe/Cu (+1%/+0%) whilst Met/Thermal Coal beat (+14%/+9%).

• With FY27G in line for WAIO/BMA (+0/-1%), Cu's (-3%) miss was driven by CuSA, where BHP's red