Upgrade: Earnings entering inflection point

Research evidence excerpt

Upgrade: Earnings entering inflection point

Macquarie Equity Research Meituan

2Q26 preview

• We now expect total revenue in 2Q26 to grow 11% YoY to Rmb102bn, 1% above Visible

Alpha (VA) consensus. We forecast a group operating loss of Rmb448mn, implying a -0.4%

group operating margin, compared with VA consensus of a Rmb933mn loss. For 2Q26

adjusted net profit, we forecast Rmb746mn, also above VA consensus of Rmb272mn.

Core Local Commerce (CLC): With price war over, UE improving

• We expect 2Q26 segment revenue to grow 5% YoY to Rmb69bn, with segment operating

profit improving sequentially to Rmb3.0bn, implying a 4.4% operating margin. As major

industry players, including Alibaba and JD, scale back aggressive subsidies in food delivery

and instant commerce, we believe competition in quick commerce is entering a more stable

phase. We expect this to ease competitive pressure on Meituan and support a turnaround

in UE (unit economics). We forecast UE to reach Rmb0.1 per food delivery order in 2Q26,

improve to Rmb0.4 by 2H26, and rise further to Rmb0.7 in 2027E.

• We also expect a more favourable competitive environment in Meituan’s in-store business,

as our channel checks indicate the company's major competitor, Douyin, has recently

shifted its investment focus from domestic commerce towards AI and cloud development.

Our channel checks also suggest Douyin has become more disciplined on the ROI of its

in-store investments and has increased monetisation rates. We believe this indicates a

reduced focus on absolute market share, which should support a stronger margin outlook

for Meituan’s in-store business.

New Business: We see continued investment in Xiaoxiang

• We expect segment revenue to grow 24% YoY in 2Q26 to Rmb33bn, with a segment