Aker BP-Higher capex & Low end of production guidance lifted-07/15/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Aker BP-Higher capex & Low end of production guidance lifted-07/15/2026

Aker BP

NEWSFLASH | 15 JUL 2026

Higher capex & Low end of production guidance lifted

Aker BP reports EBITDA 3%/2% ahead of cons./PAS, with rest of P&L below due to impairments at Valhall on lower forward

prices. Strong OCF of USD 3.1bn, 9% ahead of cons. The company lifts the low-end of the FY’26 production guidance to 380-

400 kbd (370-400 kbd). However, the main news is higher capex in 2026/2027 - up USD 1.1bn and equivalent of 6% of total

project cost. The post tax impact is around USD 200m as the projects are within the 86.9% temporary tax regime. The

increase is driven by final-phase delivery at Yggdrasil and PWP-Fenris, where extra man-hours are needed at the yard to

hold both projects on schedule for first oil next year. Since FID, capex is up 10-15% on a like for like basis (scope has

increased on the back of exploration success). As expected, no changes on the dividend guidance at this stage. In sum,

negative due to another upward revision on capex pointing to higher execution risk - although still likely manageable in our

view - even if the financial impact is small. BUY/TP NOK 400

Deviation table:

Pre quarter

Q2'26 Q2'26 Deviation Pareto PAS vs Cons

Aker BP Actual Cons PAS Cons PAS 2026e 2027e 2028e 2026e 2027e 2028e

Total income USDm 3,682 3,622 3,603 2% 2% 12,307 12,885 13,998 (2)% 4% (1)%

Operating costs (331) (374) (333) (11%) (1%) (1,333) (1,693) (1,761) (10)% 3% (4)%

EBITDA " 3,351 3,248 3,270 3% 2% 10,974 11,193 12,237 (1)% 4% (0)%

EBIT " 2,205 2,633 2,791 (16%) (21%) 9,546 8,859 9,515 3% 9% 5%

PBT " 2,150 2,563 2,764 (16%) (22%) 9,448 8,608 9,330 4% 10% 5%

Net profit " 521 555 622 (6%) (16%) 2,078 1,980 2,146 (1)% 14% 8%