Morning Comment Norway-07/22/2026

Research evidence excerpt

Morning Comment Norway-07/22/2026

performance

consensus will likely need to lift its Q3 premium estimate of USD 667/t toward -6.0% -4.0% -2.0% 0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0%

the USD 685/t mid-point of guidance. Downstream, recycling margins

Semiconductors 4.2%

improved more than we had expected, with faster traction on fixed cost

reductions leaving Extrusions margins well ahead. Those recycling margins Technology & Hardware 2.2%

should hold up into Q3, and while Hydro flags a ~1pp cut to its FY'26 Oil Integrated 1.7%

extrusion demand outlook, Q3 volumes are still set to grow (already Oil E&P 1.7%

~captured by consensus). A strong operational quarter that, in isolation, Banks 1.6%

should lift our 2026e EBITDA by 3–4%. Link to report

Gold 1.5%

• EQNR – Equinor reports Q2 EBIT adj. 1% ahead of cons. The beat was driven Oil Services 1.5%

by solid Norway production (both liquids and gas), high US liquids production Pharma 0.7%

and a beat on MMP (high physical margins in the quarter). E&P International

below cons. on portfolio changes and operational issues at Roncador. Strong Airlines 0.2%

FCF 6% ahead of cons, and net debt to capital employed down to 10.4% from Telecom 0.2%

15.3% last quarter (the company retired the preferred gearing range of 15- Utilities 0.0%

30% at the June CMD). Guidance items reiterated (see more below), as Aerospace & Defence -0.6%

expected after the company addressed production guidance, distributions,

and capex at the CMD. Overall, a solid update, but we expect no material Insurance -0.7%

price reaction. HOLD TP 400 to be reviewed. Link to report Retail -0.7%

Please see Morning Update for relevant share prices and market Chemicals -0.8%

Media & Entertainment -0.9%

Software -1.1%

Commodities, FX, rates and volatility

Key Items Last 5 days Latest +/- % YTD%