ASML (1K) | Buy | The earnings stack is compounding

Research evidence excerpt

ASML (1K) | Buy | The earnings stack is compounding

ASML Buy | Target Price: EUR2,300.00

What was novel from the Q2 2026 print?

85 secured, 110 under review

ASML is adding c.30% Low-NA EUV capacity in 2027 (c.85 units off the 65 shipping in 2026) and is

investigating a further c.30% for 2028 (c.110 units), with the identical cadence applied to

immersion in both years.

Three factors make this credible. First, 2027 EUV capacity is essentially fully covered by orders,

while 2028 has already attracted significant demand. CFO Dassen noted ASML now has two-year

forward visibility it "hasn't enjoyed in many, many years." Second, the company is "preempting"

capacity based on customer demand signals before formal purchase orders arrive. Third, both

production increases fit within the existing footprint by freeing prototype space, shortening

cycle times and leveraging the supply chain investments made in 2021-22. The new Eindhoven

campus only matters beyond 2028.

Management described 85 systems as a sensible balance between current customer demand

and what ASML and its supply chain can realistically deliver, while making clear that it would try

to push capacity higher if customers asked for more.

The boxes understate the growth

The 2027 EUV mix shifts from a D/E blend to predominantly E and F systems, meaning a 30%

increase in tool shipments translates into roughly 45% more wafer capacity, before including

the "significant uptick" from upgrades to the installed base. We believe the street still anchors

EUV sales primarily on unit volumes.

We forecast 87 Low-NA EUV systems in 2027E and 100 in 2028E, deliberately below the 110-unit

scenario under evaluation, while ASP expansion comes from the transition toward E/F platforms

and gradual like-for-like price capture.