ASML 2Q26: First Look

Research evidence excerpt

ASML 2Q26: First Look

Semiconductors

ASML HOLDING NV (ASML-NL) July 15, 2026

ASML 2Q26: First Look Rating:

OutperformASML provided strong upside to 2Q while guiding 3Q above the street, and raised Price:

CY26 guidance to a midpoint of €44bn (vs. prior €38bn). Demand remains driven by €1,555.80

AI related demand (logic and memory), but the strong 2Q results were attributed to Price Target:

€1,850installed base, which came in above expectations. Importantly, the company noted

% Upside:

that they were raising their low-NA EUV capacity by 30% in CY27 (implying 85 tools, 18.9%

vs. 65 in CY26) and is "investigating" an additional 30% capacity increase in CY28

(implying 110 tools), driven by strong demand and improved customer visibility. As Source: FactSet, Wolfe Research

Priced as of 07/14/26

we noted in our preview, ASML is the only SCE supplier that's currently capacity

limited, and is therefore the only supplier likely to quantify potential CY27/28 growth,

and ASML's capacity commentary therefore helps to serve as a proxy for WFE. We

think this commentary supports at least CY28 $235-245bn WFE.

For ASML in particular, our estimates will rise in the near term (largely as a result

Chris Caso

of installed base), but also in out years as a result of the capacity expansion, which ccaso@wolferesearch.com

we expect has been informed by customer requests. While expectations were high (646) 582-9360

View Chris’s Researchheading into the report, we view the commentary to be positive, and there is still time View ASML-NL Model

to drive upside for CY28, when customers will have more clean room space available. View Comp Table

More details following the 9am ET earnings call.

Liz Pate

Improved CY26 outlook. CY26 revenue outlook was increased vs.