Recordati (AO) | Buy | Q2 preview: no surprises expected

Research evidence excerpt

Recordati (AO) | Buy | Q2 preview: no surprises expected

#EarningsPreview

Release date: 16 July 2026

Niccolo Guido Storer, CFA

Equity Research Analyst

+39 02 8550 7209

nstorer@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyRecordati

Italy | Pharma & biotech Beta Profile: MCap: EUR10.7bn

Target Price: EUR57.50 Bloomberg: REC IM Reuters: RECI.MI

Current Price: EUR51.30 Free float 52%

Up/downside: 12.1% Avg. daily volume (EURm) 47.2

YTD abs performance 5.7% Market data: 15 July 2026

52-week high/low (EUR) 54.60/44.48

Q2 preview: no surprises expected

Key points:

We expect Q2 to move along the same lines as Q1: revenues at same FX should grow in the 8% region, with c. 1% support from

M&A (Vazkepa), low single-digit growth in SPC and double-digit growth in rare diseases, driven by Isturisa. FX headwinds should

lessen, from over 4% in Q1 to around 1.5%.

In terms of profitability, we expect nearly 150bps YOY improvement over a depressed Q2 25, which was impacted, other than by

costs to support Insturisa in the US and Enjaymo, by high R&D investments.

In terms of net debt, we expect overall QOQ stability, with operating cash flows offset by dividend payment (c. EUR145m) and the

upfront payment to Ionis linked to Zilganersen in-licensing agreement (c. EUR25m).

The Italian market regulator has recently approved the offer document for Respighi BidCo's (CVC and GBL) tender offer for

Recordati. The acceptance period will run from 31 August to 15 October, and the offer price has been set at EUR51.29 per share,

which we believe undervalues Recordati.

Reporting date 28 July

Conference call 29 July at 2.00pm CET

Dial in number TBC

Table 1:Q2/H1 preview

EURm Q2 26E Q2 25A YoY chg. H1 26E H1 25A YoY chg.

Sales 685.7 643.9 6.5% 1,399.2 1,323.8 5.7%

Adj. EBITDA 250.0 226.2 10.5% 533.6 496.3 7.5%