Tele2 (AO) | Buy | Q2 first take: Swedish slowdown overshadows broadly in-line results

Research evidence excerpt

Tele2 (AO) | Buy | Q2 first take: Swedish slowdown overshadows broadly in-line results

News comment

Release date: 16 July 2026

Kristoffer Carleskär

Equity Research Analyst

+44 207 621 5149

kcarleskar@keplercheuvreux.com

BuyTele2

Sweden | Telecom services Beta Profile: MCap: SEK116.8bn

Target Price: SEK195.00 Bloomberg: TEL2B SS Reuters: TEL2b.ST

Current Price: SEK168.45 Free float 78%

Up/downside: 15.8% Avg. daily volume (SEKm) 787.6

YTD abs performance 9.0% Market data: 15 July 2026

52-week high/low (SEK) 197.65/136.55

Q2 first take: Swedish slowdown overshadows broadly in-line results

Key points:

Kepler take: While the P&L headline numbers were only slightly below expectations, mainly due to Sweden, and FCF was in line

after adjusting for tax phasing, we believe the softer Swedish trends, particularly in fixed services, are a negative read-through

and expect the shares to underperform today.

End-user service revenue and EBITDA were slightly below consensus (rounded to 0%/-1%), with Sweden the main explanation in

absolute terms.

Free cash flow of SEK1.5bn was 5% below consensus (or SEK73m). The miss was mainly due to the phasing of tax payments.

Adjusted for this phasing, we see FCF in line with expectations. LTM FCF of SEK6.2bn equates to c. SEK8.9 per share (current DPS:

SEK10.50).

End-user service revenue increased by 2.4% (Cons: 2.8%). The key home market of Sweden saw growth of 1.3%, a slowdown

from the 2.4% recorded in Q1 2026. In the Swedish mix, mobile expanded by 2.3% (Q1: 3.4%) while fixed services were flat (Q1:

1.7%). In the Baltics, Q2 growth came in just above 6%, consistent with the 6-7% range observed over the past nine quarters.

Underlying EBITDAaL growth of 4%, adjusted for the Baltic TowerCo (Cons: 4.1%). This reflects an expected slowdown compared