Vistry Group: Cracks or chasms?

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Vistry Group: Cracks or chasms?

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Vistry Group

Cracks or chasms?

Reiterate Rating: UNDERPERFORM | PO: 260.00 GBp | Price: 252.80 GBp

Trading update not very straightforward to us 14 July 2026

Vistry announced an unscheduled trading update alongside the resignation of their CFO Equity

last week. Our key observations: 1/ sales rate (despite all the price initiatives) was

broadly unchanged from last year and fell from 1.42 in March to 1.03, and management

Key Changesdoes not expect sales rate in 2H to be higher than 1H. 2/ volume declined by 11% yoy. 3/

net debt was up to £470m from c.£140m at 2025 year end despite the WIP reduction (GBp) Previous Current

from unsold private homes by more than £300m (cash is expected by Vistry to come in Price Obj. 300.00 260.00

2H). 4/ company now expects FY26 PBT to be in line with market consensus at £200m

(vs ours at £210m) but that is before any CEO Review impact, and so far Vistry cannot Allison Sun >> Research Analyst

determine the scope nor the timing of further one-off impacts from this Review. MLI (UK)

We lower our FY26e PBT by 19%. New PO at 260p +44allison.sun@bofa.com20 7996 1052

Our 2026e PBT is lowerd by 19% to £170m, 15% below market consensus as we believe Arnaud Lehmann >>

it is extremely challenging for a strong comeback given a still slow moving market and Research Analyst MLI (UK)

some uncertainties on the timing of government funding, especially after Vistry posted a +44 20 7995 8302

£30m net loss in 1H (we were expecting c.£40m profit). See our estimate changes in arnaud.lehmann@bofa.com

Exhibit 1. We lower our PO by 13% to 260p from 300p on updated estimates.

All the stars have to align now Stock Data

We believe Vistry remains in a fragile position as many conditions need to be met in 2H