Vistry Group: High demand for affordable grants may impact Vistry's affordable pipeline

Research evidence excerpt

Vistry Group: High demand for affordable grants may impact Vistry's affordable pipeline

Equity Research

UK Housebuilding & Construction

27 May 2026

Vistry Group

High demand for affordable grants

may impact Vistry's affordable

VTYV.L/VTY LN UNDERWEIGHTpipeline

UK Housebuilding & NEUTRAL

Reports suggest funding under the new affordable homes Construction Price Target GBp 185

programme may be oversubscribed, which if correct, we Price (22-May-26) GBp 266

think has scope to impact Vistry's cash flows and reported Potential Upside/Downside -30.4% Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

profits in the near-to-medium term.

Homes England has reportedly written to social landlords, asking them to reconsider their Emily Biddulph

expected timelines for grant payments under the new £39bn Social and Affordable Homes +44 (0)20 3555 2947

Programme (2026-2036), due to a high volume of applications for early funding (source: Housing emily.biddulph@barclays.com

Barclays, UKToday). We understand that Vistry will need to work through its pipeline in order to understand

the likely impact on targetted partner deals. Where the group is also bidding in its own right for Shruti Hanumant Dhumal

funding, cash available in the early years of the programme may now also be lower than hoped, +91 (0)22 6175 1786

meaning it needs to explore mitigations. We are concerned this has scope to impact both shrutiha.dhumal@barclays.com

Barclays, UKearnings and cash flows in late 2026, into 2027.

We are particularly concerned that these reports quickly follow news reports around what

we view as extreme WIP control: While the group did comment in its Q1 statement that it was

"delaying or slowing the building of some sites to ensure full alignment between the rate of