Fed Notes: Task force takes: #3 AI's impact on productivity and jobs

Research evidence excerpt

Fed Notes: Task force takes: #3 AI's impact on productivity and jobs

Deutsche Bank

Research

Economics Date

Fed Notes 16 July 2026

Task force takes: #3 AI's impact on

Matthew Luzzetti, Ph.D. productivity and jobs

Chief US Economist

+1-212-250-6161

This note is the third in a series covering each of the five Fed task forces that Chair

Warsh announced at the June FOMC press conference. See the first two notes Matthew Raskin

here: Strategist

+1-212-250-1741

Task force takes: #1 Communications

Brett Ryan

Task force takes: #2 Balance sheet Senior US Economist

+1-212-250-6294

Justin Weidner

Introduction Economist +1-212-469-1679

At the June FOMC meeting, Chair Warsh announced the constitution of five task

Amy Yang

forces focused on various aspects of monetary policy. One of those task forces Economist

was on the impact of AI on the economy and monetary policy. Warsh noted much +1-212-250-9959

of the work by the task forces should be completed by the fall with a conclusion

hoped for by year end. From then it may take some time for the FOMC to agree

on and implement any recommendations.

At this point, the scope of the “AI task force” is unclear. Unlike communications

and the balance sheet (our first two installations in this series), which have been

featured in past iterations of the Fed’s framework review, an investigation into AI

and productivity growth is new ground for the Committee. Nonetheless, we have

received clarity on the leadership of this task force: Marc Andreessen, venture

capitalist and cofounder of Andreessen Horowitz, Chad Jones, Standford

professor of economics currently on leave at Anthropic, and Asha Sharma, XBOX

CEO.

Based on prior comments from Chair Warsh, our baseline is that the focus of the