BASF: Strong pre-release, conservative guidance, structural drivers playing out

Research evidence excerpt

BASF: Strong pre-release, conservative guidance, structural drivers playing out

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy BASF 16 July 2026

Results

Europe

Germany

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 15 Jul 2026 (EUR) 47.94

BASFn.DE BAS GR GER BASFn

Price Target (EUR) 60.00

Chemicals

ADR ISIN 52-week range (EUR) 54.74 - 41.59

Bulk

BASFY US0552625057

Strong pre-release, conservative

Valuation & Risks guidance, structural drivers playing out

Virginie Boucher-Ferte

BASF just pre released materially stronger than expected Q2 results (EBITDA up 50%

Research Analyst

YoY and 15% above consensus) and (expectedly) raised the midpoint of its FY EBITDA +33-1-4495-5934

guidance by 11%, in-line with consensus. We view the new guidance as too

conservative at the mid-point, though we understand the company's cautious Rajiv Dalal

Research Associate

stance, given recent uncertainties and past disappointments. FCF was weak and the

FY guidance has been kept unchanged as the EBITDA upgrade is offset by working

cap outflows (due to raw mats). As previously noted, we view this as an industry-wide Saurabh Mehndiratta

rather than company-specific issue. Critically, BASF stands apart with a solid balance Research Associate

sheet, providing resilience in the current environment.

Tristan Lamotte

The share price closed down 3%, underperforming cyclical peers, a classic "sell the Research Analyst

news" reaction, likely exacerbated by increasingly negative sentiment towards +44-20-7547-1862

cyclicals, and BASF's role as a high-liquidity default trade for many investors.

However, while we are not 'pro-cyclicals,' we remain relatively more constructive on Price/price relative

BASF, owing to i) its conservative new guidance; ii) the company's superior structural 80