BASF: Look for €2.2bn adj. EBITDA; attention moves beyond Q2 strength

Research evidence excerpt

BASF: Look for €2.2bn adj. EBITDA; attention moves beyond Q2 strength

Equity Research

European Chemicals & Ingredients

30 June 2026

BASF

Look for €2.2bn adj. EBITDA;

attention moves beyond Q2

BASFn.DE/BAS GY UNDERWEIGHTstrength

Unchanged

Q2 likely strong and above consensus, but largely priced in; European Chemicals & NEGATIVE Ingredients

Unchangedfocus has shifted to H2 durability and potential FY guidance

changes. We see scope for a pre-release mid-July, with Price Target EUR 40.00 Unchanged

absence of communication beyond that becoming Price (26-Jun-26) EUR 47.76

Potential Upside/Downside -16.2%incrementally more informative for investors' H2

Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

expectations

Market Cap (EUR mn) 42626

Our view: We expect BASF to deliver a strong Q2, supported by the same disruption-driven Shares Outstanding (mn) 892.52

tailwinds highlighted by Brenntag and Evonik, both of which pre-released results 10–20% Free Float (%) 100.00

above consensus. However, market reaction suggests these tailwinds are now well 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 2.6

understood and largely priced in, with Brenntag shares trading down ~0.5% (versus SX4P Dividend Yield (%) 4.79

0.03%) and Evonik only modestly higher (+0.44% versus SX4P -0.25%) despite the magnitude Return on Equity TTM (%) 4.94

of the beats. This suggests a high bar for all chemicals companies Q2, with focus already Current BVPS (EUR) 39.03

shifting towards sustainability into H2. While BASF has indicated comfort with sell-side Source: Bloomberg

consensus (now approaching ~€2.1bn adj. EBITDA), our conversations with investors suggest

that buyside expectations are materially higher, implying that a headline beat alone may not Price Performance Exchange-GER

be sufficient to drive share upside.