Grafton Group PLC: The Grafton Way: driving a >10% EPS CAGR

Research evidence excerpt

Grafton Group PLC: The Grafton Way: driving a >10% EPS CAGR

Deutsche Bank Group

Deutsche Numis Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Grafton Group PLC 16 July 2026

Europe Reuters Bloomberg Rating Buy

United Kingdom GFTU_u.L GFTU LN Price target (GBX) 1,315.0 Price at 14 Jul 26 898.7

52-week range 992.3 – 808.4

Building & Construction

Building Materials Valuation & Risks

The Grafton Way: driving a >10% EPS CAGR

Christen Hjorth

Our analysis suggests that Grafton is well-placed to hit its 2030 targets: >10% Research Analyst

+44-20-754-11567 EPS CAGR, cumulative FCF of £850m+, and ROCE of c.13%. Driving this

performance is ‘The Grafton Way’ (its federated growth model), exposure to Chris Millington

faster growing economies (Ireland and Spain represent 65%+ of group EBIT), and Research Analyst

its impressive capital allocation track record (e.g. c.22% of the share count retired +44-20-7541-1570

since 2022). With a terminal P/E of 12x and discount rate of 8%, we increase our

Jonathan Coubrough target price to 1315p (46% upside) and reiterate our Buy. Research Analyst

+44-20-754-54671 • The Grafton Way. Grafton’s business model embraces decentralisation,

empowering local brands with defensible market positions under

experienced local management. A lean central team supports local

operations (e.g. best practice, collaborative efficiencies) and handles Key changes

capital allocation. Looking forward, we believe The Grafton Way provides Price target (GBX) 1,275 1,315 3%

a de-risked platform for growth.

Source: Deutsche Bank

• Bottom-up analysis. We analyse the group's four divisions: 1. Ireland

(c.51% of group pro forma 2025 EBIT). Strong market positions offer a

major competitive advantage, positioning the division for compounding

growth in a robust economy. 2. GB (c.21%).