Fincantieri: H1 preview and Underwater focus

Research evidence excerpt

Fincantieri: H1 preview and Underwater focus

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Fincantieri 16 July 2026

Results

Europe

Italy

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 14 Jul 2026 (EUR) 12.07

FCT.MI FCT IM MIL FCT

Price Target 19.00

Aerospace & Defence

52-week range 26.92 - 9.81

H1 preview and Underwater focus

Valuation & Risks

Sriram Krishnan, CFA

Fincantieri is due to publish its H1 26 results on 29 July which should see

Research Analyst

sequential operational improvement. We now incorporate a financial +44-20-7541-0983

contribution from the recently announced margin-accretive acquisitions within

the Underwater division. But we lower our relative valuation multiples following Christophe Menard

the pull-back in the European defence sector and among shipbuilding peers.

+33-1-4495-9315

Overall, this results in a modest uplift to our TP to €19 and we retain our BUY

rating. Samrudh Agrawal

Research Associate

Order intake remains quite robust

Fincantieri has disclosed orders worth €12bn YTD (€6b in Q2), even as Q2 firm

Key changes

orders could be only c.€3bn as customers finalise financing. However, overall

TP 18.50 to 19.00 ↑ 2.7%

backlog (incl. Soft orders) at the end of H1 26 should be quite high at c.€80bn. As

Source: Deutsche Bank

these orders are firmed up in H2 and the €5bn anticipated defence orders are likely

to close by Q3, FY26 order intake could be >€18bn and well ahead of the €11bn

guidance.

Q2 26 should see a sequential improvement

Q2 operational performance should be sequentially better than in Q1 as Naval

shipbuilding execution returns to more normal levels following a weak Q1. Overall

H1 group revenues should be broadly flat yoy at €4,580m, with yoy growth coming

from all divisions. H1 26 EBITDA should be c.10% higher yoy to €341m, with the