Fincantieri: Post Q1 26 - Short term Naval weakness

Research evidence excerpt

Fincantieri: Post Q1 26 - Short term Naval weakness

Deutsche Bank

Research

Rating Company Date

Buy Fincantieri 12 May 2026

Results

Europe

Italy

Reuters Bloomberg Exchange Ticker Price at 8 May 2026 (EUR) 11.37

FCT.MI FCT IM MIL FCT

Price Target 18.50

Aerospace & Defence

52-week range 26.92 - 11.30

Post Q1 26 - Short term Naval weakness

Valuation & Risks

Sriram Krishnan, CFA

Fincantieri's Q1 results was a mixed, as its weak Naval performance dominated

Research Analyst

stronger performance in all other businesses. A modest guidance upgrade was +44-20-7541-0983

encouraging. Long term opportunities remain encouraging and firm order intake

at Naval and Underwater should be key for stock performance. Christophe Menard

+33-1-4495-9315

Q1 26 results was mixed

Samrudh Agrawal

Q1 group revenues came 2% below DB estimates (no consensus available) at

Research Associate

€2,135m and Adj EBITDA were 3% ahead at €159m, implying an EBITDA margin of

7.4% vs 7.1% DBe and 6.5% in Q1 25. Group backlog reached another all-time high

of €74bn (including soft backlog), driven primarily by Cruise. Net financial position

(post capital raise) at end of Q1 was better than expected at €771m vs €811m DBe,

bringing leverage down to 1.1x (1.8x ex- capital increase).

Naval weakness overshadows other strengths

All businesses, except Naval, reported good set of numbers (detailed table below).

Naval revenues were expected to be weak in Q1 due to tough yoy comps and lack

of Constellation-class revenues. But reported revenues of €297m, came well below

DBe of €370m, effectively dragging divisional and group performance. We expect

Qtly revenue run rate of €450-500m to return only from 2027 when Italian and some

US orders start being executed.

Cruise and other business strength drives guidance uplift