Mexico Equity Strategy: Mexico Equity Flows and Positioning: July 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Mexico Equity Strategy: Mexico Equity Flows and Positioning: July 2026

Update

July 16, 2026 09:01 PM GMT

Morgan Stanley México, Casa de Bolsa, S.A. de C.V.+MMexico Equity Strategy | Latin America Nikolaj Lippmann

Equity Strategist

Mexico Equity Flows and Nikolaj.Lippmann@morganstanley.comMorgan Stanley C.T.V.M. S.A.+ +1 212 761-2463

Julia M Leao Nogueira

Equity StrategistPositioning: July 2026 Julia.Nogueira@morganstanley.com +55 11 3048-6046

Global investors are now EW in EM, and Mexico's lower weight

in MSCI combined with the lowest OW since the pandemic

signal a light international holding for Mexican stocks. This could

be positive for large caps like CX, FMX & Banorte. Local pension

LTM inflow were ~US$ 20 bn, but May was negative.

Key Takeaways

Global positioning in EM stands at -0.2 pp, and OW by GEM funds in Mexico has

decreased to 0.5p.p., below 0.7p.p. avg., compared to the max of 1.2p.p in May-19

Foreigner flows in local exchanges registered -US$0.8 bn of outflows in June, vs

+US$0.4bn inflows in May and almost flat (+USD$0.1bn) flows over the LTM

Local pension funds saw seasonal net outflows of -US$1.0bn in June, vs US$4.3bn

net inflows in May, although flows remain stable with US$20.1bn net inflows LTM

Local positioning in domestic equities by AFOREs decreased to 6.8%, with room

to add exposure given its crowded position near the cap for foreign equities

We see a similar story in ETFs with NAFTRAC experiencing net inflows of +US

$77mn and EWW experiencing net outflows of -US$67mn in June

Key Highlights:

• Foreign equity ownership: Last data available indicates global funds are

broadly EW in EM and OW in Mexico is at its lowest since Jan-21. In June

2026, foreigners' net outflows stood at -US$0.8bn (vs +US$0.4bn in May)

and +US$0.1bn net outflows LTM.