European Metals & Mining Tracker: Drawdown, Not Breakdown

Research evidence excerpt

European Metals & Mining Tracker: Drawdown, Not Breakdown

Idea

July 16, 2026 03:00 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+MEuropean Metals & Mining Tracker | Europe Alain Gabriel, CFA

Equity Analyst

Drawdown, Not Breakdown Alain.Gabriel@MorganStanley.comIoannis Masvoulas, CFA +44 20 7425-8959

Ioannis.Masvoulas@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0427

Gold reset - a familiar correction? Adahna Ekoku

Exhibit 1: Gold pullbacks of >25% from prior peaks have occurred over 5 distinct Adahna.Ekoku@morganstanley.com +44 20 7425-0578

Ferdinand Huber

periods since 1960

Research Associate

0% Ferdinand.Huber@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-2702

Feb 1975–Aug 1976

Jan 1980–Mar 1980 RMB Morgan Stanley Proprietary Limited+

-10%

Sep 1980–Jun 1982 Brian Morgan

Mar 2008–Sep 2008 Equity Analyst

-20% Brian.Morgan3@rmbmorganstanley.com +27 11 587-0803 Jan 2026–Jun 2026*

Morgan Stanley & Co. International plc+

-30%

Amy Gower (Amy Sergeant), CFA

Peak Commodities Strategist

-40% vs. Amy.Gower1@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-6937

Px Ben Kelson

Research Associate-50% Gold

Ben.Kelson@morganstanley.com +44 20 7677-1392

-60% Indexed Mining 101

-70% Weeks Since Peak (0 = Peak) Mining & Steel Equities

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 Mining Sector Valuation Long Term

Source: Morgan Stanley Research, Bloomberg, * Ongoing Steel Sector Valuation Long Term

Commodity Price Signals

Gold drawdowns in context. Over the last 65 years, gold has repeatedly delivered

Commodity Price Forecast

sharp but ultimately cyclical drawdowns, with the current 26% decline from the

most recent peak marking the fifth >25% episode in the post-1960 period. The 1975-

76 pullback (-44%, 18 months) followed fading oil-shock and inflation risk as real

rates and the USD strengthened; Jan-Mar 1980 (-43%, 2 months) was a sharp