Autos & Shared Mobility: What's Going on in Auto Retail?

Research evidence excerpt

Autos & Shared Mobility: What's Going on in Auto Retail?

Idea

July 16, 2026 02:59 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMAutos & Shared Mobility | North America Daniela M Haigian

Equity Analyst

What's Going on in Auto Retail? Daniela.Haigian@morganstanley.comAndrew S Percoco +1 212 761-6071

Andrew.Percoco@morganstanley.com +1 212 296-4322

Franchise Dealers (ABG, AN, GPI, LAD, PAG, SAH) rose ~5% Jahvonte G Bain

today on avg, extending the group’s one-month gain to 8% vs. ResearchJahvonte.Bain@morganstanley.comAssociate +1 212 761-9231

autos -4.5% and S&P 500 +24bps. With operating execution, Katherine A Bennorth

Research Associate

supportive auto data and a resilient consumer backdrop, we Katie.A.Bennorth@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3753

believe the re-rating can continue selectively across the group. Autos & Shared Mobility

North America

Franchise dealers uplifted with consumer cyclical outperformance. Franchise auto Industry View In-Line

dealer stocks saw a broad-based rally today, with the group outperforming the

market following yesterday's materially softer-than-expected June CPI print that

reduced July rate hike odds to 10% and a wave of strong 2Q bank earnings that

collectively reinforced the resilience of the US consumer. Abating fears on rate hikes

directly improves the auto affordability and financing cost outlook, and bank

earnings citing spending accelerating, DQs declining, and credit quality stable are all

direct positive read-throughs for the prime-skewed franchise dealer customer base

(83% of new car loans go to prime or superprime customers). SAH and GPI led the

group, up 8.0% and 6.8% respectively, followed by LAD (+3.8%), AN (+3.6%), PAG

(+3.5%), and ABG (+2.9%). We believe today's move higher in franchise dealer