China Internet & New Media - Takeaways from air travel expert call

Research evidence excerpt

China Internet & New Media - Takeaways from air travel expert call

Global Markets Research

6 July 2026China Internet & New Media

EQUITY: INTERNET & NEW MEDIA

Takeaways from air travel expert call Research Analysts

China Internet & New Media

Declining volumes and tightening regulations create Jialong Shi - NIHK

Jialong.shi@nomura.comheadwinds for the air ticketing industry

+852 2252 1409

Key highlights Rachel Guo - NIHK

The Nomura China Internet Team recently hosted a call with an expert from a leading rachel.guo@nomura.com

Chinese flight management and air ticketing application. The expert noted that Chinese +852 2252 1400

air passenger volumes have declined since 2Q26, driven by higher air fuel surcharges.

Looking ahead to the peak summer travel season, the expert projects a 4% y-y drop in air

passenger trips. This is attributed to fuel surcharges that remain elevated on a relative

basis, despite the aviation authority initiating reductions in June. Additionally, a tightening

regulatory environment—spearheaded by major airlines altering their commission and

distribution policies—is currently pressuring the air ticketing revenues of OTAs (online

travel agencies).

Macro and geopolitical headwinds weighing on air travel

According to the expert, the total air passenger volume carried by Chinese airlines

reached 375mn passenger trips in 1H26, up 1% y-y. However, the growth trajectory was

highly uneven. While 1Q26 recorded average volume growth of approximately 7% y-y,

2Q26 witnessed a meaningful decline of 4-5% y-y. This contraction was primarily driven

by surging fuel prices stemming from geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East.

Consequently, Chinese aviation authorities significantly raised air fuel surcharges in back-

to-back hikes during April and May.