Downgrade: Regulatory risk caps monetisation

Research evidence excerpt

Downgrade: Regulatory risk caps monetisation

Macquarie Equity Research Trip.com Group

Key Risks to Investment Thesis Company Description

• Faster/slower recovery of travel demand could impact Trip.com is one of the largest online travel agencies in the

overall bookings trend. world in terms of gross merchandise value (GMV). The

• Better/worse-than-expected regulatory investigation company provides one-stop travel platforms that offer

outcome could impact long term business outlook and flight and train ticketing, hotel bookings, package tours

profitability. and corporate travel services. Travellers can also share

• Stronger/weaker growth of overseas business and their travel plans and guides on the platforms. Services are

offered through Ctrip and Qunar in China, and Trip.com and profitability improvement.

Skyscanner in international markets.

Figure 1 - TCOM: Quarterly revenue mix Figure 2 - TCOM: OPM trends

RMB mn Rmb mn

20,000 25,000 35%

18,000 30%

16,000 20,000

25%

14,000

15,000 20% 12,000

10,000 10,000 15%

8,000

10%

6,000 5,000

5%

4,000

2,000 0 0%

-

1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20 4Q20 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 4Q21 1Q22 2Q22 3Q22 4Q22 1Q23 2Q23 3Q23 4Q23 1Q24 2Q24 3Q24 4Q24 1Q25 2Q25 3Q25 4Q25 1Q26

Adj. OP Adj. OPM

Overseas Outbound China Domestic

Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2026 Source: Company data, Macquarie Research, June 2026

Trip.com Group (TCOM US) CNY/(m) unless otherwise noted

Income Statement Dec FY 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E Q1/26A Q2/26E Balance Sheet 2025A 2026E 2027E 2028E

Revenue 62,409 67,271 73,150 80,533 16,208 15,622 Cash 46,451 59,058 75,589 93,599

EBITDA 16,868 15,476 16,989 19,400 4,144 3,602 Receivables 32,007 32,007 32,007 32,007

Depreciation 647.0 603.7 638.3 661.6 150.9 150.9 Inventories 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0