Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#123): France 2027: The Path Clears for Le Pen"

Research evidence excerpt

Global Macro Chart of the Day "(#123): France 2027: The Path Clears for Le Pen"

Global Research

14 July 2026ab

Global Macro Chart of the Day Economics

Global(#123): France 2027: The Path Clears for Le Pen

Arend Kapteyn

Economist

Le Pen leads even in second-round polling arend.kapteyn@ubs.com

+44-20-7567 0531

The 2027 French presidential election (April next year) is one of the key political events in

Europe, and a significant source of political and policy uncertainty. President Macron is

constitutionally barred from seeking a third consecutive term.

One longstanding question has been whether Marine Le Pen would be eligible to run.

The leader of the far-right Rassemblement National (RN), which currently leads the polls,

was found guilty of misusing European Parliament funds between 2004 and 2016. She

was initially sentenced to four years in prison (two years suspended and two years under

electronic monitoring), fined EUR100,000 and barred from holding public office for five

years. Last week's Paris Court of Appeal ruling reduced the ban on elected office,

effectively to time already served since the original March 2025 judgment, preserving

her eligibility for the 2027 election. However, the court also ordered her to serve the

non-suspended portion of her sentence under home detention with electronic

monitoring. Le Pen has indicated that she will appeal the ruling with the Court de

Cassation, which effectively stays the ruling and allows her to run.

Current polling shows Le Pen comfortably ahead of other candidates in the first round.

Historically, however, RN has struggled to convert a first-round lead into victory, as voters

have tended to coalesce around a more centrist candidate in the runoff. However, the