Freight Transportation: Truck Stop/TLFI: Reaching an Elevated Equilibrium

Research evidence excerpt

Freight Transportation: Truck Stop/TLFI: Reaching an Elevated Equilibrium

Update

July 15, 2026 04:01 AM GMT

Morgan Stanley & Co. LLCMFreight Transportation | North America Ravi Shanker

Equity Analyst

Truck Stop/TLFI: Reaching an Ravi.Shanker@morganstanley.comNancy Hipp +1 212 761-6350

Research Associate

Nancy.Hipp@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-1311

Elevated Equilibrium Madison J Pasterchick

Madison.Pasterchick@morganstanley.com +1 212 761-3787

Our TLFI continued to underperform due to both the demand

Freight Transportation

and supply component this update despite remaining at all-time North America

highs for this time of year. Reefer and Flatbed indices both Industry View In-Line

underperformed normal seasonality, while Reefer increased seq. Please see all charts in This Week's Key Charts

and Flatbed decreased seq. Please find the MS TLQURE forecast in Section

4 and see here for more on the QURE model.

MS TLQURE: We have updated our QURE model for the month of July and vs. our Previous Truck Stop Report: Truck Stop/TLSS:

prior model to account for a structural shift in market dynamics that has emerged Demand Scores While Supply Plays Defense (8

since 2023. Our new base case prediction is that truck rates will move to $2.48 in 6 July 2026)

months (currently $2.49) and move to $2.52 in 12 months. Please find the full

updated MS TLQURE forecast in Section 4, additional detail on our updated model

here, and here for more information on the QURE model.

Our TLFI continued to underperform this update, marking the third

underperformance in a row in the last nine updates. Our index decreased seq. for

the third time in the past five updates and posted an underperformance for the third

time in a row due to both the demand and supply component. This is also the third