ASML 2Q26 First Take: 3Q and 2026 guidance substantially higher. Large capacity increases guided mean ‘28 earnings potential is dramatically above consensus.

Research evidence excerpt

ASML 2Q26 First Take: 3Q and 2026 guidance substantially higher. Large capacity increases guided mean ‘28 earnings potential is dramatically above consensus.

J P M O R G A N Europe Equity Research

15 July 2026

ASML

2Q26 First Take: 3Q and 2026 guidance substantially Overweight

higher. Large capacity increases guided mean ‘28 ASML.AS, ASML NA

earnings potential is dramatically above consensus. Price (14 Jul 26):€1,555.80

Price Target (Jun-28):€1,900.00

Our Take: ASML's 2Q results and 3Q guidance were better than market European Tech Hardware &

expectations, with the company raising FY26 sales guidance to €44bn at the Payments

midpoint, which is 16% higher than the midpoint of the prior guidance. We Sandeep Deshpande AC

calculate that this is likely to raise FY26 consensus estimates by around 25%. (44-20) 7134-5276

However, the most important points in their report were indications from the sandeep.s.deshpande@jpmorgan.com

company on capacity in 2027 and 2028. The co. has indicated that they will raise Craig A McDowell

both EUV and immersion DUV capacity in both 2027 and 2028 by 30% which (44-20) 7742-4576

would result in approx. 85/110 EUV and 169/210 Immersion DUV tools in craig.mcdowell@jpmorgan.com

2027/2028. The 2028 capacity guidance is higher than JPMe and JPMe were the Anthony Girard

(44-20) 3493-6469

highest sell side estimates for that year. On the back of the envelope this would anthony.girard@jpmorgan.com

result in more than €65 in EPS for 2028, potentially enhanced even more so by the J.P. Morgan Securities plc

very strong Installed Base Management revenue that ASML is already seeing.

Overall the only slight negative is that the co. does not achieve 90 EUV tool Specialist Sales contact details:

capacity in 2027.