MARUI GROUP (8252) Lowering our earnings estimates to reflect changes to assumptions based on FY2026 guidance

Research evidence excerpt

MARUI GROUP (8252) Lowering our earnings estimates to reflect changes to assumptions based on FY2026 guidance

J P M O R G A N Asia Pacific Equity Research

15 July 2026

MARUI GROUP (8252) Overweight

8252.T, 8252 JP

Lowering our earnings estimates to reflect changes Price (14 Jul 26):¥2,962

to assumptions based on FY2026 guidance ▼Price Target (Dec-27):¥3,500 Prior (Dec-26):¥3,700

We expect the limited impact of oil price trends on earnings and flexible

shareholder return measures to provide share-price support. We maintain our Japan Equity Research

Overweight rating in view of Marui Group’s defensive nature relative to our retail Retail

coverage, the quality of its profits, and its commitment to shareholder value. AC Dairo Murata

• Revising earnings estimates: Based on 4Q FY2025 results and 1Q FY2026 (81-3)dairo.murata@jpmorgan.com6736 8620

transaction volume trends, we lower our operating profit estimates for the next

Ami Terai

three years by 8-11%. Our operating profit estimates for FY2026-27 are 1%

(81-3) 6736-8660

and 2% lower than the Bloomberg consensus estimates, respectively. For ami.terai@jpmorgan.com

FY2026, we (1) lower our previously bullish forecast for revolving credit fees Kazuha Matsuo

as the impact of the revolving credit APR hike on 4Q FY2025 results was not (81-3) 6736-8614

as large as we expected; (2) lower our forecast for gains on the transfer of kazuha.matsuo@jpmorgan.com

receivables in light of Marui Group’s plan to adjust the securitization of JPMorgan Securities Japan Co., Ltd.

receivables to reduce the volatility of operating profit growth; and (3) raise our

expense assumption as guidance calls for both fintech and retail costs to

Key Changes (FYE Mar)

increase in FY2026 by more than we had expected. In this report, we change

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