ADNOC Gas: Model update - 2Q26 preview

Research evidence excerpt

ADNOC Gas: Model update - 2Q26 preview

Equity Research

European Integrated Energy

14 July 2026

ADNOC Gas

Model update - 2Q26 preview

We raise our 2Q26 earnings forecast as stronger commodity

prices should partly offset the impact of lower sales volumes

ADNOCGAS.AD/ADNOCGASacross the business, supporting a more resilient earnings UH OVERWEIGHT

outcome than previously assumed. Unchanged

European Integrated Energy POSITIVE

Unchanged

• While the substantial volume decline is expected to drive a sharp drop in profitability versus Price Target AED 5.00

2Q25 and 1Q26 results, we have raised our 2Q26 forecasts, as higher commodity prices and an Unchanged

improved margin backdrop partly offset weaker sales volumes. Price (13-Jul-26) AED 3.42

Potential Upside/Downside +46.2%

• While flows improved in June relative to April and May, we still expect a material quarter-on- Source: Bloomberg, Barclays Research

quarter decline in exported traded liquids and LNG volumes, reflecting continued disruption

through the Strait of Hormuz. Domestic gas sales volumes are also likely to remain under Market Cap (AED mn) 262489

pressure from the conflict, although the impact should be less pronounced than for ETL and Shares Outstanding (mn) 76751.42

LNG export flows. Free Float (%) 9.00

• Benchmark Brent and key product prices, including LNG, naphtha and LPG, have 52 Wk Avg Daily Volume (mn) 33.1

Dividend Yield (%) 5.10 strengthened materially since the onset of the conflict. Although export restrictions

Return on Equity TTM (%) 20.18 continued to weigh on volumes, the stronger pricing environment should provide a partial

Current BVPS (AED) 0.34 offset through higher margins, particularly across export traded liquids and LNG.

Source: Bloomberg