Oil & gas (AO) | So we have a deal

Research evidence excerpt

Oil & gas (AO) | So we have a deal

Oil & gas

Chart 3:Rating and target price

Source: Kepler Cheuvreux estimates

What we know about the deal, although the exact terms are not clear yet

Our understanding of the "Memorandum of Understanding" is the following:

– Extend the ceasefire in place since 8 April by 60 days, with measures linked to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz (SoH) to be

implemented over 30 days, while nuclear negotiations would proceed over 60 days (with the ability to extend it by mutual

agreement).

– Iran would gradually allow the strait to reopen and remove mines from the waterway during the first 30 days.

– Iran will agree not to charge tolls or a fee on the SoH for the duration of the 60 days.

– The US will also lift its naval blockade while also issuing a temporary sanctions waiver for Iran's oil sales.

– Lay the framework for discussions on Iran’s nuclear programme, including the removal or dilution of enriched uranium.

– The US would also commit to releasing a portion of Iran's frozen assets, although this item remains a sticking point where Iran

is pressing for tangible money access (range USD12-24bn) while the US reportedly favours a gradual, performance-based

process.

A MoU between the US and Iran would obviously be a relief, but would surely not mean a peace agreement is durably sealed while

Iran's leverage on the Strait of Hormuz would remain significant.

Sector Most Preferred Stocks Sector Least Preferred Stocks

Company Rating Target Price Upside Company Rating Target Price Upside

BP Hold 600p 545.30p 10% Aker BP Reduce NOK175.00 NOK354.70 -51%

Shell Hold EUR39.00 EUR37.92 3% Var Energi Hold NOK49.00 NOK49.73 -1%

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