2Q26 TD Cowen Rail Survey

Research evidence excerpt

2Q26 TD Cowen Rail Survey

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC INDUSTRY UPDATE

July 10, 2026

■Airfreight & Surface Transportation: Air 2Q26 TD Cowen Rail Survey

Freight & Logistics

■Airfreight & Surface Transportation: Rail

Jason H. Seidl THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1404

Rail pricing steps down marginally in Q2 after a large step up last quarter. Macro outlook flat

jason.seidl@tdsecurities.com

sequentially, business growth steps up again in Q2. Positive service ratings for all three U.S.

Elliot Alper Class Is track above the survey average despite strong carloadings growth. More shippers are

646 562 1403 beginning to worry about securing rail capacity.

elliot.alper@tdsecurities.com

Uday Khanapurkar, CFA Pricing Steps Down Modestly In Q2

646 562 1362

Railroad pricing expectations for the next 6-12 months came in at 3.7%, down 20bps vs ouruday.khanapurkar@tdsecurities.com

1Q survey and right in line with the five-year average of 3.7%. These results differ from the

Price Target Changes sentiment shared during our railroad roundtable, where panelists were incrementally positive

CSX $45.00 (Prior $46.00) on rail trends. Sustained momentum for rail pricing may take time to play out, given the

natural lag to their OTR peers. Class Is have called out confidence in rail pricing this year that

is expected to outpace rail inflation.

Business Growth Improves, Macro Outlook Unchanged

Shipper estimates for business growth increased to 2.0%, up another 30bps sequentially.

33% of participants are more confident than they were three months ago, flat sequentially.

38% of participants believe they will need to increase hiring over the next year, up 5 points

sequentially. Improved business growth and a potential increase in hiring aligns with our