TD Cowen Pulse On Retail: 2Q Weather Slightly Colder & Wetter Across Store Base

Research evidence excerpt

TD Cowen Pulse On Retail: 2Q Weather Slightly Colder & Wetter Across Store Base

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC SECTOR NOTE

July 10, 2026

■Retailing/Specialty Stores: Hardlines TD Cowen Pulse On Retail: 2Q Weather

Slightly Colder & Wetter Across Store Base

TD Cowen Retail Team THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1010

Wetter trends in second half of July may dampen traffic and outdoor categories, though

retail@tdsecurities.com

temps should trend similar Y/Y. July 12th-18th is expected to trend warmer and drier than LY

Max Rakhlenko, CFA nationally, a tailwind for outdoor and seasonal sales. 2Q temps averaged slightly cooler Y/Y

646 562 1423 while precipitation trended higher Y/Y for most tracked companies. Father's Day was much

max.rakhlenko@tdsecurities.com

cooler Y/Y, a seasonal headwind.

Oliver Chen, CFA

646 562 1424 Weather Fluctuated In June, Cold Father's Day & Hot 4th In The East

oliver.chen@tdsecurities.com

Nationally, temperatures were warmer than LY for 17% of the U.S. and warmer than normal for

Jonna Kim, CFA 59%; June temps on the whole trended slightly cooler Y/Y, per Weather Trends International

646 562 1419

(WTI). The month started cooler Y/Y in the East, before shifting to a heat wave in the second

jonna.kim@tdsecurities.com

week of the month. Mid-June was cooler for North Central states though warmer Y/Y in the

Krista Zuber Northwest. Father's Day was significantly cooler Y/Y in the Midwest and NE, a negative for

646 562 1331 outdoors and seasonal sales. For the 4th of July, the West became much cooler Y/Y while the

krista.zuber@tdsecurities.com East experienced an intense heat wave. Precipitation trended similar Y/Y nationally, North

Amanuel Seife Central and Mid-Atlantic states experienced flash flooding and power outages over the 4th of

646 562 1406 July weekend.