In Support of Record Equity Levels - 2Q26 Refining Earnings Preview

Research evidence excerpt

In Support of Record Equity Levels - 2Q26 Refining Earnings Preview

TD SECURITIES (USA) LLC INDUSTRY UPDATE

July 21, 2026

■Refining & Marketing In Support of Record Equity Levels - 2Q26

Refining Earnings Preview

Jason Gabelman THE TD COWEN INSIGHT

646 562 1309

Refiners could continue to make new highs given strong macro. TD Cowen valuations that

jason.gabelman@tdsecurities.com

imply 13% upside are anchored to '27 FCF that embeds margins in line with '23 and share

Will Avila counts 20% lower. High beta names (VLO, MPC, DK, PBF) should outperform diversified (DINO,

646 562 1344 PSX). On idiosyncratic n/t items, PSX could benefit from 2Q debt reduction while DK could

will.avila@tdsecurities.com

benefit from SREs.

Anthony Petrino

646 562 1364 3Q Revisions Likely Outweigh 2Q Results

anthony.petrino@tdsecurities.com

We are updating our 2Q and future estimates from our June 29 mark-to-market note. We had

Price Target Changes noted two weeks ago the group has upside on constructive macro and forecasting 3Q EBITDA

DINO $98.00 (Prior $79.00) 50% above consensus. We reiterate that view in this note. We see a more modest 4% upside

DK $76.00 (Prior $58.00) to 2Q consensus EBITDA after rising 17% qtd. Given the strong environment, we expect high-

MPC $357.00 (Prior $315.00) beta names ((VLO, MPC, DK, PBF) to outperform lower beta (DINO, PSX). We price in an $5.50/

PARR $100.00 (Prior $78.00)

bbl haircut to 3Q26 and 4Q26 futures cracks (adjusted for RIN) and $2.50/bbl to FY27. It is

PBF $68.00 (Prior $39.00)

worth noting that FY27 cracks, adjusted for RIN prices and global gas spreads, are only ~$1/bblPSX $240.00 (Prior $220.00)

VLO $338.00 (Prior $292.00) above 2023.

In Support of Record High Price Targets