Australian Steel - August Reporting Season Preview

Research evidence excerpt

Australian Steel - August Reporting Season Preview

Royal Bank of Canada, Sydney

Branch

Owen Birrell (Analyst)

+61 3 8688 6519,

owen.birrell@rbccm.com

Tom Peyton (Associate)

+61 3 8688 6502,

tom.peyton@rbccm.com

July 8, 2026

Australian Steel - August Reporting Season PreviewRESEARCH Australian Steel Spread (Jul-26)

This month: In this month's 'Australian Steel Spread' we focus on the August 2026 reporting season.

Overall we are expecting a generally positive reporting season, with upside risk emerging from

the constructive commodity price environment. Bluescope Steel (BSL, Outperform, PT $37.00) is

benefitting from the recent widening of global steel spreads and associated re-rating across global steel

stocks. We expect this positive momentum to continue into FY27, and therefore see upside risk to

consensus estimates with BSL's provision of 1H27 guidance. Sims (SGM, Outperform, Spec Risk, PT

$32.50) has upgraded its FY26 guidance, underpinned by solid scrap market fundamentals (Metals) andEQUITY

DRAM pricing (SLS). We expect further upside risk to FY27 estimates with these positive trajectories

continuing into FY27. Vulcan Steel (VSL, Sector Perform, PT $5.25) remains beholden to mixed demand

across its various operating markets in Australia and NZ. For Alpha HPA (A4N, Sector Perform, Spec

Risk, PT $0.75), the investment case remains tied to the successful delivery of its 10.4ktpa 'First Project'

facility (due late-CY27) and commercial off-take commitments.

Exhibit 1 - Australian Steel Sector - August 2026 Result Preview

Consensus

Company Result Metric RBCe Look out for

(Guidance)

Monday 17 August

(i) Expect a solid result, at the top end of 2H26 guidance; (ii) Strong

EBIT 1,250 1H27 guidance expected; (iii) Ongoing capital management; (iv)

Bluescope Steel FY26 1,256