Feedback from the Australian Steel Association Conference 2026

Research evidence excerpt

Feedback from the Australian Steel Association Conference 2026

t Asia EAF Spread* $US/t 127 125 -13% 15% 27% -1% 144 98

US EAF Spread* $US/t 762 672 -9% 1% 18% 38% 762 433

*Current price does not include lags

Source: FactSet, S&P Global, Bloomberg, RBC Capital Markets estimates

Global market in excess: Global steel is in surplus by ~600mtpa (total capacity 2025 (est.): ~2.5bt) and

is being closely monitored by the OECD and GFSEC. Australia operates a demand-driven trade safeguard

system via the Anti-Dumping Commission, and the proposed Regulatory Reform Omnibus Bill 2026 aims

to streamline anti-dumping investigations.

Australia focused on green transition: Australia's 'Future Made in Australia' policy targets net-zero,

economic resilience and national security, DRI-EAF process presents a possible green pathway to

produce green steel, and Whyalla continues to receive State and Federal government support.

Domestic market remains soft; high inflation remains an issue: Australia's domestic economy is

softening, with weak business confidence, consumer sentiment and slowing growth. The RBA prioritises

inflation over growth, with the 2.5% target expected to arrive "later rather than sooner". A labour

shortage is driving a trend where People now "can't afford to buy at the price it costs to build".

Next generation of steel production is coming: Three new EAF mill developments in Queensland and

WA were showcased: (i) Alter Steel's 500kt Pinkenba hub (first steel CY27); (ii) Future Forgeworks' 350kt

Swanbank mill (first steel Q1 CY28) and (iii) Green Steel WA's ~450kt Collie mill (first steel 2028).

Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted). All values in AUD unless otherwise noted