AEL: Quarterly Check-Up: 2Q26 (4Q FY26)

Research evidence excerpt

AEL: Quarterly Check-Up: 2Q26 (4Q FY26)

: A$m

Spot gas pricing. We estimate the average June 2026 quarter Victoria FCFPS: Acps

(DWGM) daily spot price at A$9.90/GJ and Sydney (NSW spot) at A$10.25/ Production:All values in PJeAUD unless otherwise noted.

GJ. In Victoria, this pricing reflected softer demand and steady storage Priced as of prior trading day's market close, EST (unless otherwise noted).

injections. NSW pricing was also affected by softer demand and improved

East Coast supply availability. We assume Amplitude spot volumes sold are

a mixture of Victoria and NSW sales opportunities.

Sensitivity to A$10/GJ pricing from FY27. If we assume an A$10/GJ gas

price from FY27 onward, it results in an Amplitude DCF-based valuation

of $1.29/sh. This suggests Amplitude's current share price has already pre

judged a negative outcome from the Domestic Gas Reservation Scheme.

We believe this view is premature and believe the Government must fine

tune the Scheme to provide a level playing field that encourages new

domestic gas project investment, while also creating a more balanced gas

market from both a supply and pricing viewpoint.

Earnings revisions. We have updated 4Q FY26 for slightly lower gas pricing

than what we had previously forecast. These changes have decreased our

FY26 and FY27 EBITDAX forecast by 2% each year. This has also increased

our forecast FY26 EPS loss by 4%, but decreased our FY27 EPS loss by 2%.

Our valuation has increased by 2% to $2.03. We have retained our $2/sh

price target and Sector Perform (Speculative Risk) rating.

Disseminated: Jul 8, 2026 15:25EDT; Produced: Jul 8, 2026 15:15EDT

For Required Non-U.S. Analyst and Conflicts Disclosures, see page 8